FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 25 May 2026
Inter Miami CF 6–4 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 25 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 45%, draw at 29%, Philadelphia Union at 26%. The match ended 6-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Inter Miami CF.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Union win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.29
Total 3.04
Actual
6 – 4
Total 10 (+7.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 7.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 49%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Inter Miami's 1.75 xG advantage combined with 81% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the strongest play despite modest win odds."