> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 22:00 UTC
Inter Miami CF vs Portland Timbers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Inter Miami's 0.75 xG advantage and 52% win probability make them slight favorites, but Portland's defensive vulnerability makes Over 1.5 Goals the strongest play at 85%.
Win probability
52.1% home25.9% draw22.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Inter Miami CFstepPortland Timbers
1.91Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.06Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
4
3
1
1
7
9
6
3
1
2
7
10
6
3
1
3
5
7
4
2
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Inter Miami CF 2–0 Portland Timbers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+