Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers operate with a significant defensive vulnerability, conceding 2.20 expected goals per match whilst generating just 1.48 at the other end—a profile that explains their recent run of one win, two draws and three losses across six settled fixtures. Their attacking output remains modest and inconsistent, limiting ceiling on most scorelines. With no fixtures currently scheduled in the window, attention turns to the underlying metrics: Bawler's model has maintained a perfect 100% hit rate on Timbers banker selections across tracked matches, suggesting the Poisson framework is capturing genuine edges in their defensive exposure.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Portland Timbers were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the USA: MLS average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Portland Timbers are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Portland Timbers actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Portland Timbers's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Portland Timbers fixture, the model lands 7 out of 7 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.
How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Portland Timbers fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Portland Timbers matches.