Bawler / USA: MLS / Portland Timbers
Team profile

Portland Timbers Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.4
a game
14.3 faced
On target
4.6
a game
5.5 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
21%
Portland Timbers win chance
at Chicago Fire · Sun 16 Aug 22:00

Portland Timbers prediction: for Portland Timbers's next match — Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers on Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Chicago Fire are favoured (53%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Portland Timbers are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.97 expected goals a game against a MLS average of 1.45. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.09 a game against 1.46 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Chicago Fire FC, where the model has them as underdogs at 21%.

Portland Timbers in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.9Away 1.1
4.8
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 5.1Away 4.6
12.4
Shots · per game
faced 14.3
Home 13.5Away 11.2
4.6
On target · per game
faced 5.5
Home 4.9Away 4.2
Last 6 games
14 Aug
3-1
vs Club Tijuana
5-1
10 Aug
1-3
@ Club America
5-5
07 Aug
5-2
vs Puebla
5-6
02 Aug
2-1
vs Seattle Sounders
4-5
26 Jul
2-1
vs Real Salt Lake
-
23 Jul
2-2
vs Dallas
-

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Chicago Fire · Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC

Win
21%
This team
Draw
26%
Loss
53%
Chicago Fire
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 78%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Portland Timbers compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.46
Below average
Goals against
1.97
Leakier than most
Record
4W 3D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
2.1 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.46
Conceded1.97

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.97 xG per match · +0.52 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Portland Timbers fixtures (8/8).
Squad availability · Portland Timbers vs Chicago Fire
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Portland Timbers

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 11 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%8/8
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 20 Augvs San Diego FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 02 Augvs Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Real Salt Lake
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs FC Dallas
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Jul@ Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Inter Miami CF
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 May@ CF Montréal
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 May@ Real Salt Lake
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Apr@ Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INAlexander AravenaLWfrom GremioLoan
INJosé CaicedoCMfrom Pumas€2m
INVincent JanssenSTfrom Royal AntwerpFree transfer
OUTMatías RojasRMto LibertadFree transfer
OUTFelipe MoraSTto San LuisUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Portland Timbers and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly