FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–0 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 52%, draw at 26%, Portland Timbers at 22%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Inter Miami CF.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Timbers win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.06 – 1.31
Total 3.37
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 43%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.00x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Inter Miami's 0.75 xG advantage and 52% win probability make them slight favorites, but Portland's defensive vulnerability makes Over 1.5 Goals the strongest play at 85%."