> MATCH.PREDICT()·ITALY: Serie A·Sunday 03 May, 18:45 UTC
Inter vs Parma
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
72.7% home19.8% draw7.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
InterstepParma
1.98Base xG · rolling 26-match0.55
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.14Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.53
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
4
1
1
15
8
2
2
16
8
2
3
11
6
2
4
6
3
1
5
3
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 6.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 14.7% · @ 6.80x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Inter 2–0 Parma
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+