FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Inter 2–0 ParmaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter at 73%, draw at 20%, Parma at 8%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Inter.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Inter win
73%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Parma win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.14 – 0.53
Total 2.67
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 93%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
X2
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 6.80x
- Home Win✓
- Over 6.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗