> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Tuesday 16 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Iran vs New Zealand
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 73% probability because Iran's 0.79 xG advantage and 1.76 expected goals output creates a high-volume attacking blueprint that New Zealand's 0.97 xG cannot match defensively.
Win probability
52.6% home28.9% draw18.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
IranstepNew Zealand
1.63Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.76Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.97
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
6
3
1
1
11
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
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6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+