> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 09 May, 17:00 UTC
Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
34.2% home29.0% draw36.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Istanbul BasaksehirstepSamsunspor
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.66
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.60
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
7
6
3
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
1
3
3
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Istanbul Basaksehir 3–0 Samsunspor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+