FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 3–0 SamsunsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 34%, draw at 29%, Samsunspor at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-0. The model's headline call was Samsunspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Basaksehir win
34%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Samsunspor win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.60
Total 3.14
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 41%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.46x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✗