> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals projects at 72% because combined xG of 2.67 and Ecuador's narrow 6-point win-probability edge over Ivory Coast (37% vs 31%) both signal an open, attacking contest.
Win probability
30.8% home31.9% draw37.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Ivory CoaststepEcuador
1.17Base xG · rolling 26-match1.46
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.27Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.41
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
5
3
1
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3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+