Bawler / Ivory Coast vs Ecuador / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Monday, 15 June 2026

Ivory Coast 1–0 EcuadorMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 15 June 2026

Ivory Coast
1–0
Ivory Coast win
Ecuador
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Ivory Coast at 31%, draw at 32%, Ecuador at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Ecuador to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Coast win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
32%
Ecuador win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.27 – 1.41
Total 2.67
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
1X
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.01x
  • Under 10.5 Corners–
  • Over 2.5 Goals✗
  • X2✗
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals projects at 72% because combined xG of 2.67 and Ecuador's narrow 6-point win-probability edge over Ivory Coast (37% vs 31%) both signal an open, attacking contest."

> More from Bawler