Bawler / World: World Cup / Ecuador
Team profile

Ecuador Prediction

Per-game numbers from 4 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.7
a game
12.0 faced
On target
6.3
a game
3.0 faced
Goals
0.5 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 4 matches
Corners
6.7
a game
1.7 against

Ecuador prediction: Bawler's model rates Ecuador at 1.40 expected goals scored and 1.37 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 71% of the time. Their last 5 settled matches read 2W 1D 2L. No Ecuador fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Ecuador sit close to the World Cup average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.40 expected goals a game and conceding 1.37. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.40 expected. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Ecuador have been correct 71% of the time.

Ecuador in numbers

4 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
0.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 1.0Away 0.0
6.7
Corners · per game
give up 1.7
Home 6.0Away 8.0
13.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.0
Home 17.0Away 7.0
6.3
On target · per game
faced 3.0
Home 9.0Away 1.0
Last 4 games
01 Jul
0-2
@ Mexico
8-3
25 Jun
2-1
vs Germany
3-2
21 Jun
0-0
vs Curaçao
9-0
14 Jun
0-1
@ Ivory Coast
-

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Ecuador compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.40
Above average
Goals against
1.37
Tighter than most
Record
2W 3D 2L
7 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 0.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.40
Conceded1.37

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 71% of the time on Ecuador fixtures (5/7).

How Bawler has done on Ecuador

71%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)71%5/7

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

More on Ecuador and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly