> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 31 May, 16:30 UTC
KAA Gent vs Racing Genk
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals projects at 85% probability as both sides combine for 3.83 expected goals in an evenly matched encounter where Genk's marginal 2.00 xG edge keeps this fixture wide open.
Win probability
34.0% home25.4% draw40.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KAA GentstepRacing Genk
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match2.08
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.83Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.00
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
2
4
4
3
1
1
1
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8
8
5
3
1
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7
7
5
2
1
3
2
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4
3
1
1
4
1
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2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 8.5 Corners + X2
Model 27.7% · @ 3.61x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
KAA Gent 1–1 Racing Genk
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+