> MATCH.PREDICT()·TURKEY: Super Lig·Sunday 03 May, 17:00 UTC
Karagumruk vs Genclerbirligi
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
31.3% home30.6% draw38.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KaragumrukstepGenclerbirligi
1.11Base xG · rolling 26-match1.41
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.20Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
11
7
3
1
1
9
13
9
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Karagumruk 1–0 Genclerbirligi
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+