FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Karagumruk 1–0 GenclerbirligiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Karagumruk at 31%, draw at 31%, Genclerbirligi at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Genclerbirligi to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Karagumruk win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Genclerbirligi win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 1.35
Total 2.56
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost