> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Thursday 21 May, 18:30 UTC
KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Club Brugge's 2.30 xG against mid-table Mechelen's 1.50 creates a decisive 0.8 gap favoring the away side's 53% win probability.
Win probability
23.0% home23.9% draw53.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KV MechelenstepClub Brugge
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match2.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
KV Mechelen 2–2 Club Brugge
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+