> MATCH.PREDICT()·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Championship Group·Sunday 03 May, 11:30 UTC
KV Mechelen vs Gent
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
34.8% home29.9% draw35.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KV MechelenstepGent
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.34
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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12
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 12.2% · @ 8.20x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
KV Mechelen 1–0 Gent
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+