FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Championship Group · Sunday, 03 May 2026
KV Mechelen 1–0 GentMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had KV Mechelen at 35%, draw at 30%, Gent at 35%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward KV Mechelen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mechelen win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Gent win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.34
Total 2.66
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.20x
- X2✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗