> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 26 Apr, 23:00 UTC
LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
41.8% home27.2% draw31.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LA GalaxystepReal Salt Lake
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.48
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.42
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 19.3% · @ 5.19x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
LA Galaxy 2–1 Real Salt Lake
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+