> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Saturday 23 May, 18:45 UTC
Lazio vs Pisa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lazio's superior xG advantage (1.42 vs 1.02) and relegation-desperate Pisa create attacking chaos favoring Over 1.5 Goals at 81% probability.
Win probability
42.5% home33.0% draw24.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LaziostepPisa
1.31Base xG · rolling 26-match1.06
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.02
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
5
2
1
12
13
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lazio 2–1 Pisa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+