FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Leeds United 1–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Leeds United at 38%, draw at 31%, Brighton & Hove Albion at 31%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Leeds United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Albion win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.34
Total 2.85
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.45x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- X2✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Brighton's xG deficit (1.34 vs 1.51) combined with 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the banker pick the decisive edge despite balanced win odds."