> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 17 May, 14:00 UTC
Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Brighton's xG deficit (1.34 vs 1.51) combined with 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the banker pick the decisive edge despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
38.2% home30.8% draw31.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Leeds UnitedstepBrighton & Hove Albion
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.34
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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12
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Leeds United 1–0 Brighton & Hove Albion
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+