FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 08 May 2026
Lens 1–0 NantesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 08 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lens at 61%, draw at 22%, Nantes at 17%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Lens.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
61%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Nantes win
17%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.43 – 1.25
Total 3.68
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.90x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- 1X✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 10.5 Corners✓