Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Lens
Team profile

Lens Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.4
a game
11.2 faced
On target
5.6
a game
3.5 faced
Goals
2.0 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
61%
Lens win chance
vs Auxerre · Sat 22 Aug 15:15

Lens prediction: for Lens's next match — Lens vs Auxerre on Saturday 22 Aug, 15:15 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Lens win looks most likely (61%).

Lens carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.99 expected goals per game against a Ligue 1 average of 1.58. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.67 a game against 1.99 expected. Recent form is good, with 4 wins in their last 5. Next up is AJ Auxerre, where the model makes them clear favourites at 61%.

Lens in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 2.0Away 1.9
6.2
Corners · per game
give up 4.2
Home 6.8Away 5.7
16.4
Shots · per game
faced 11.2
Home 18.2Away 14.7
5.6
On target · per game
faced 3.5
Home 6.4Away 4.7
Last 6 games
01 Aug
3-1
vs Villarreal
-
28 Jul
0-1
vs Famalicao
-
28 Jul
3-0
@ Crystal Palace
-
22 May
3-1
vs Nice
-
17 May
4-0
@ Lyon
8-20
13 May
0-2
vs PSG
6-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Auxerre · Saturday 22 Aug, 15:15 UTC

Win
61%
Lens
Draw
22%
Loss
16%
Auxerre
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Lens compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.99
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Tighter than most
Record
5W 0D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
2.7 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.99
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.99 xG per match · +0.42 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.58.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Lens fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Lens

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Fri 22 Mayvs Nice
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Lyon
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 13 Mayvs Paris Saint-Germain
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 08 Mayvs Nantes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Aprvs Toulouse
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 20 Marvs Angers
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INFranjo IvanovicSTfrom BenficaLoan
INYacine TitraouiDMfrom Sporting Charleroi€8m
INMichal SkórasLWBfrom Gent€6m
INMichaël CuisanceAMfrom Hertha BSC€3.5m
INSaud AbdulhamidRWBfrom Roma€3.5m
INMaik NawrockiCBfrom Celtic€2.5m
INThorgan HazardAMfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTMamadou SangaréDMto Brentford€48m
OUTFacundo MedinaCBto Marseille€18m
OUTMalang SarrCBto Neom SCFree transfer
OUTAllan Saint-MaximinLWto Charlotte FCFree transfer
OUTAnass ZarouryLWto PanathinaikosUndisclosed
OUTJeremy AgbonifoRWto HäckenLoan
OUTJeremy AgbonifoRWto Jagiellonia BiałystokLoan
OUTWesley SaïdAMto Al-ShamalFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Lens and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly