> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Wednesday 13 May, 19:00 UTC
Lens vs Paris Saint-Germain
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lens' superior xG (2.05) despite 42% win odds signals undervaluation; back Over 1.5 Goals at 83% as banker play.
Win probability
41.5% home25.1% draw33.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LensstepParis Saint-Germain
1.90Base xG · rolling 26-match1.91
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.84
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
4
3
2
1
1
4
8
7
4
2
1
2
4
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
5
3
1
1
4
2
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lens 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+