> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Levante vs Mallorca
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Levante's superior xG (1.57 vs 1.22) and 77% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the over the most reliable edge in this tight relegation battle.
Win probability
42.2% home30.7% draw27.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LevantestepMallorca
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.22
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 28.4% · @ 3.52x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Levante 2–0 Mallorca
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+