FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Levante 2–0 MallorcaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Levante at 42%, draw at 31%, Mallorca at 27%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Levante.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Levante win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Mallorca win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.22
Total 2.79
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.52x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
> What we said pre-match
"Levante's superior xG (1.57 vs 1.22) and 77% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the over the most reliable edge in this tight relegation battle."