> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Lyon vs Lens
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lens's title-race urgency plus nearly identical xG (1.54 vs 1.52) creates defensive vulnerability, making Over 1.5 Goals at 79% the strongest play.
Win probability
34.9% home29.5% draw35.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LyonstepLens
1.41Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.52Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.54
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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3
4
5
6
0
5
7
6
3
1
1
7
11
8
4
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lyon 0–4 Lens
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+