Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Lyon
Team profile

Lyon Prediction

Per-game numbers from 46 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.9
a game
11.0 faced
On target
4.9
a game
3.7 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 46 matches
Next match
21%
Lyon win chance
at Fenerbahce · Tue 18 Aug 19:00

Lyon prediction: for Lyon's next match — Fenerbahce vs Lyon on Tuesday 18 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Fenerbahce are favoured (49%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Lyon sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.44 expected goals a game and conceding 1.34. Next up is a trip to Fenerbahce, where the model has them as underdogs at 21%.

Lyon in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 1.9Away 1.4
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 5.9Away 5.3
12.9
Shots · per game
faced 11.0
Home 14.0Away 11.8
4.9
On target · per game
faced 3.7
Home 5.2Away 4.7
Last 6 games
11 Aug
3-0
vs Sparta Prague
7-1
04 Aug
1-2
@ Sparta Prague
9-6
17 May
0-4
vs Lens
20-8
10 May
1-2
@ Toulouse
8-7
03 May
4-2
vs Rennes
7-5
25 Apr
3-2
vs Auxerre
6-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Fenerbahce · Tuesday 18 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
21%
Lyon
Draw
30%
Loss
49%
Fenerbahce
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 76%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Lyon compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.44
Below average
Goals against
1.34
Tighter than most
Record
2W 1D 5L
8 settled
Real goals
1.3 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.44
Conceded1.34

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Lyon fixtures (5/6).

How Bawler has done on Lyon

88%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sat 22 Aug@ Toulouse
Wed 26 Augvs Fenerbahce

Recent matches (last 8)

Tue 11 Augvs Sparta Prague
High confidence: Home Win
Tue 04 Aug@ Sparta Prague
High confidence: Under 2.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Lens
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ Toulouse
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 03 Mayvs Rennes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Apr@ Angers
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Marvs Monaco
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Marvs Celta Vigo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMads BidstrupCMfrom Salzburg€11m
INZachary AthekameRBfrom MilanLoan
INJulien DuranvilleRWfrom Borussia Dortmund€5m
INFelix BacherCBfrom Estoril€4.3m
INNoham KamaraCBfrom Paris Saint-Germain€4.1m
INLoïs OpendaSTfrom JuventusLoan
INKail BoudacheAMfrom NiceFree transfer
INMohamed OuédraogoLMfrom Altach€2.2m
OUTAfonso MoreiraLWto Bayer Leverkusen€30m
OUTMartín SatrianoSTto Getafe€6.5m
OUTOrel MangalaDMto GetafeLoan
OUTEnzo MolebeLWto LausanneLoan
OUTAchraf LaâziriLMto Ittihad TangerFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Lyon and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly