> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Mallorca vs Real Oviedo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 73% offers the sharpest edge as both relegation-battlers generate sufficient xG (2.53) despite defensive desperation.
Win probability
36.6% home33.0% draw30.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MallorcastepReal Oviedo
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.25
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.20
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
8
10
6
2
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
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2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Mallorca 3–0 Real Oviedo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+