FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Mallorca 3–0 Real OviedoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Mallorca at 37%, draw at 33%, Real Oviedo at 30%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Mallorca.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mallorca win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
33%
Oviedo win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.20
Total 2.53
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 73% offers the sharpest edge as both relegation-battlers generate sufficient xG (2.53) despite defensive desperation."