> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 10 May, 12:00 UTC
Mallorca vs Villarreal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
30.3% home27.8% draw41.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MallorcastepVillarreal
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.87
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.80
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 SOT + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 31.9% · @ 3.14x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Mallorca 1–1 Villarreal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+