Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Villarreal
Team profile

Villarreal Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.3
a game
12.5 faced
On target
4.4
a game
4.0 faced
Goals
1.7 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
22%
Villarreal win chance
at Atlético Madrid · Sun 23 Aug 15:00

Villarreal prediction: for Villarreal's next match — Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal on Sunday 23 Aug, 15:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Atlético Madrid are favoured (51%).

Villarreal sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.64 expected goals a game and conceding 1.29. Next up is a trip to Atlético Madrid, where the model has them as underdogs at 22%.

Villarreal in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 2.3Away 1.1
4.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.6
Home 5.2Away 2.9
12.3
Shots · per game
faced 12.5
Home 14.9Away 9.7
4.4
On target · per game
faced 4.0
Home 5.7Away 3.0
Last 6 games
01 Aug
1-3
@ Lens
-
29 Jul
2-1
vs Como
-
29 Jul
3-0
@ Al-Ula
-
24 May
5-1
vs Atlético Madrid
5-9
17 May
0-2
@ Rayo Vallecano
9-1
13 May
2-3
vs Sevilla
6-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Atlético Madrid · Sunday 23 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Win
22%
Villarreal
Draw
28%
Loss
51%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Villarreal compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.64
Above average
Goals against
1.29
Tighter than most
Record
3W 1D 3L
7 settled
Real goals
1.9 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.64
Conceded1.29

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.64 xG per match · +0.20 above the Spain: La Liga average of 1.44.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.29 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Villarreal fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Villarreal

71%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sun 24 Mayvs Atlético Madrid
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Rayo Vallecano
High confidence: X2
Wed 13 Mayvs Sevilla
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ Mallorca
High confidence: X2
Sun 26 Aprvs Celta Vigo
High confidence: Villarreal or Draw (Double Chance)
Mon 06 Apr@ Girona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 20 Marvs Real Sociedad
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INPéter GulácsiGKfrom RB Leipzig€2m
OUTThiago FernándezLWto LevanteLoan
OUTArnau TenasGKto MallorcaLoan
OUTThomas ParteyCMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTDiego CondeGKto Real BetisLoan
OUTAlfonso PedrazaLBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTHugo LópezSTto FC AndorraLoan
OUTPau CabanesSTto EldenseFree transfer
OUTDani ParejoCMto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Villarreal and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly