FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Mallorca 1–1 VillarrealMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Mallorca at 30%, draw at 28%, Villarreal at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Villarreal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mallorca win
30%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Villarreal win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.80
Total 3.31
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 47%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.14x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓