FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Marseille 1–1 NiceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Marseille at 45%, draw at 26%, Nice at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Marseille to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
45%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Nice win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.10
Total 2.55
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Marseille or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won