Bawler / FRANCE: Ligue 1 / Marseille
Team profile

Marseille Prediction

Per-game numbers from 42 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.8
a game
11.3 faced
On target
5.6
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 42 matches
Next match
54%
Marseille win chance
vs Strasbourg · Fri 21 Aug 18:45

Marseille prediction: for Marseille's next match — Marseille vs Strasbourg on Friday 21 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Marseille win looks most likely (54%).

Marseille carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.61 expected goals per game against a Ligue 1 average of 1.35. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.80 goals a game against 1.61 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is Strasbourg, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 54%.

Marseille in numbers

42 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 2.2Away 1.3
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 3.8
Home 5.7Away 4.7
14.8
Shots · per game
faced 11.3
Home 15.5Away 14.1
5.6
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 6.1Away 5.2
Last 6 games
17 May
3-1
vs Rennes
4-11
10 May
1-0
@ Le Havre
0-3
02 May
0-3
@ Nantes
8-7
26 Apr
1-1
vs Nice
7-1
18 Apr
0-2
@ Lorient
7-1
10 Apr
3-1
vs Metz
7-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Strasbourg · Friday 21 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
54%
Marseille
Draw
24%
Loss
21%
Strasbourg
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Marseille compare with the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.61
Above average
Goals against
1.46
Tighter than most
Record
1W 1D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
0.8 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.61
Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average (1.35 scored, 1.50 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.61 xG per match · +0.26 above the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average of 1.35.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Marseille fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Marseille

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 10 May@ Le Havre AC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Aprvs Nice
High confidence: Marseille or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 18 Apr@ Lorient
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Apr@ Monaco
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs Lille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INFacundo MedinaCBfrom Lens€18m
INTimothy WeahRBfrom Juventus€15m
INHamed TraorèAMfrom AFC Bournemouth€7.5m
OUTMason GreenwoodRWto Fenerbahçe€40m
OUTFacundo MedinaCBto Bayer Leverkusen€23m
OUTHamed TraorèAMto GenoaLoan
OUTBilal NadirAMto Hamburger SVFree transfer
OUTGerónimo RulliGKto Manchester City€2m
OUTPierre-Emerick AubameyangSTto Deportivo A Coruña€1.5m
OUTKeyliane AbdallahRWto GimnasticLoan
OUTFrançois MugheRMto AEL LimassolUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Marseille and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly