Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Nice
Team profile

Nice Prediction

Per-game numbers from 43 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.5
a game
15.0 faced
On target
3.8
a game
5.2 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 43 matches
Next match
44%
Nice win chance
vs Lorient · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Nice prediction: for Nice's next match — Nice vs Lorient on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Nice win looks most likely (44%).

Nice are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.81 expected goals a game against a Ligue 1 average of 1.45. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.50 goals a game against 1.28 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 2 of their last 5. Next up is Lorient, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 44%.

Nice in numbers

43 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 1.1Away 0.9
5.1
Corners · per game
give up 5.6
Home 5.5Away 4.7
11.5
Shots · per game
faced 15.0
Home 13.1Away 9.9
3.8
On target · per game
faced 5.2
Home 4.3Away 3.3
Last 6 games
22 May
1-3
@ Lens
-
17 May
0-0
vs Metz
10-4
10 May
1-2
@ Auxerre
1-10
02 May
1-1
vs Lens
7-8
26 Apr
1-1
@ Marseille
1-7
18 Apr
0-0
@ Lille
3-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Lorient · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
44%
Nice
Draw
28%
Loss
28%
Lorient
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Nice compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.28
Below average
Goals against
1.81
Leakier than most
Record
0W 3D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
0.5 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.28
Conceded1.81

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.28 xG per match · -0.29 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.58.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.81 xG per match · +0.35 vs league average of 1.45.
Tough market: Goals (Over/Under)
Nice matches give the model a harder read here — 2/5 (40%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Nice

50%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 6, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Goals (Over/Under)40%2/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Fri 22 May@ Lens
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Metz
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ AJ Auxerre
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Marseille
High confidence: Marseille or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 18 Apr@ Lille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs PSG
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INGauthier HeinAMfrom Metz€1.7m
INLaurent AbergelDMfrom LorientFree transfer
OUTCharles VanhoutteDMto Feyenoord€5.5m
OUTJérémie BogaSTto Juventus€5m
OUTKevin CarlosSTto CagliariLoan
OUTKail BoudacheAMto LyonFree transfer
OUTTom LouchetCMto PAOK Thessaloniki€2m
OUTAliou BaldéSTto St. GallenUndisclosed
OUTGabin BernardeauRWto Lorient€1m
OUTRares IlieAMto MantovaUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Nice and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly