FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 11 May 2026
Minnesota United FC 2–2 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 47%, draw at 34%, Austin FC at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Minnesota United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
47%
Draw
34%
Actual ✓
FC win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.39 – 0.82
Total 2.22
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost