> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 10 May, 23:00 UTC
Minnesota United FC vs Austin FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.6% home33.8% draw19.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Minnesota United FCstepAustin FC
1.29Base xG · rolling 26-match0.86
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.39Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.82
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
9
4
1
1
15
13
5
1
2
11
9
4
1
3
5
4
2
4
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Minnesota United FC 2–2 Austin FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+