Bawler / USA: MLS / Austin
Team profile

Austin Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.8
a game
14.8 faced
On target
3.6
a game
5.2 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
28%
Austin win chance
vs Dallas · Mon 17 Aug 00:30

Austin prediction: for Austin's next match — Austin vs Dallas on Monday 17 Aug, 00:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Dallas are favoured (41%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Austin are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.72 expected goals a game against a MLS average of 1.45. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Next up is FC Dallas, where the model has them as underdogs at 28%.

Austin in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.2Away 1.1
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 5.5
Home 5.2Away 3.5
10.8
Shots · per game
faced 14.8
Home 12.2Away 9.6
3.6
On target · per game
faced 5.2
Home 3.9Away 3.4
Last 6 games
14 Aug
2-1
@ Club America
3-6
10 Aug
3-0
vs Puebla
7-8
07 Aug
2-0
vs Club Tijuana
6-7
02 Aug
0-1
@ Colorado Rapids
0-11
26 Jul
0-3
@ Houston Dynamo
6-1
23 Jul
3-1
vs Seattle Sounders
4-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Dallas · Monday 17 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Win
28%
Austin
Draw
30%
Loss
41%
Dallas
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 76%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Austin compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.18
Below average
Goals against
1.72
Leakier than most
Record
1W 4D 5L
10 settled
Real goals
1.1 – 2.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.18
Conceded1.72

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.18 xG per match · -0.30 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.72 xG per match · +0.27 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Austin fixtures (3/3).
Squad availability · Austin vs Dallas
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Austin

90%
of high-confidence calls correct — 9 of 10, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 20 Aug@ Seattle Sounders FC
Sun 23 Augvs Philadelphia Union

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 02 Aug@ Colorado Rapids
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ Houston Dynamo FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 23 May@ St. Louis CITY SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 May@ San Diego FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 11 May@ Minnesota United FC
High confidence: 1X
Sat 18 Apr@ Toronto FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Apr@ Inter Miami
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Marvs Los Angeles FC
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INPrzemyslaw PlachetaRWfrom Oxford UnitedFree transfer
INJon BellCBfrom Seattle Sounders FCFree transfer
INChristian RamirezSTfrom MLS PoolFree transfer
OUTDaniel PereiraDMto CF Montreal€1.8m
OUTNicolás DubersarskyCMto TigreLoan
OUTRobert TaylorRWto MLS PoolFree transfer
OUTAntonio GomezCBto Sporting Club JacksonvilleLoan
OUTStefan ClevelandGKto Sporting Kansas City€43k

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Austin and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly