FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Minnesota United FC 0–1 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 40%, draw at 30%, Colorado Rapids at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Minnesota United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
40%
Draw
30%
Rapids win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.36
Total 2.96
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 48%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.26x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- 1X✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Minnesota's xG edge (1.61 vs 1.36) combined with 80% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the most reliable play despite balanced win odds."