> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Thursday 14 May, 00:30 UTC
Minnesota United FC vs Colorado Rapids
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Minnesota's xG edge (1.61 vs 1.36) combined with 80% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the most reliable play despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
40.5% home29.8% draw29.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Minnesota United FCstepColorado Rapids
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.41
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.36
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
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5
3
1
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Minnesota United FC 0–1 Colorado Rapids
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+