Pre-match, Bawler had NAC Breda at 34%, draw at 27%, Heerenveen at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Heerenveen to win.
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.