FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Nashville SC 2–2 D.C. UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 36%, draw at 40%, D.C. United at 24%. The match ended 2-2 — confirming the model's lean toward a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
36%
Draw
40%
Actual ✓
United win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.91 – 0.71
Total 1.62
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+2.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
BTTS No
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won