> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 10 May, 01:15 UTC
Nashville SC vs D.C. United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
35.6% home40.0% draw24.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Nashville SCstepD.C. United
0.84Base xG · rolling 26-match0.74
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.91Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.71
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
20
14
5
1
1
18
13
5
1
2
8
6
2
3
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nashville SC 2–2 D.C. United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+