> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
NEC's 0.66 xG advantage and 84% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the home win the model's most confident play despite even odds.
Win probability
49.9% home26.9% draw23.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NEC NijmegenstepGo Ahead Eagles
1.81Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.96Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Go Ahead Eagles
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+