FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 17 May 2026
NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 50%, draw at 27%, Go Ahead Eagles at 23%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward NEC Nijmegen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nijmegen win
50%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Eagles win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.96 – 1.30
Total 3.26
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.27x
- 1X✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"NEC's 0.66 xG advantage and 84% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the home win the model's most confident play despite even odds."