> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 03 Jun, 18:45 UTC
Netherlands vs Algeria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 71% probability because Netherlands' 0.57 expected-goal advantage and 1.61 xG output should break through Algeria's 1.04 defensive ceiling in open play.
Win probability
47.3% home30.7% draw22.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NetherlandsstepAlgeria
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.05
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Netherlands 0–1 Algeria
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+