> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Monday 08 Jun, 18:45 UTC
Netherlands vs Uzbekistan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability because Netherlands' 0.76 expected-goals edge and 1.78 xG output create a shooting ceiling Uzbekistan's 1.02 xG cannot adequately contain.
Win probability
51.9% home28.7% draw19.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NetherlandsstepUzbekistan
1.73Base xG · rolling 26-match1.03
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.78Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.02
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Eldor Shomurodov
Uzbekistan · Istanbul Başakşehir
40%@ 2.50x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Netherlands 2–1 Uzbekistan
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+