Netherlands 2–1 UzbekistanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 08 June 2026

2–1

Netherlands win

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Netherlands at 52%, draw at 29%, Uzbekistan at 19%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Netherlands.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Netherlands win

52%

Actual ✓

Draw

29%

Uzbekistan win

19%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.78 – 1.02

Total 2.80

Actual

2 – 1

Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 73%

✓ Won

Value

Home Win

Pre-match: 55%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability because Netherlands' 0.76 expected-goals edge and 1.78 xG output create a shooting ceiling Uzbekistan's 1.02 xG cannot adequately contain."

> More from Bawler